Blank

Now that the electorate has sent me back to spend more time with my blog here goes. The issue of the number of spoils came up with the three elections being blamed.  However there may be a further issue not being discussed.

At the North Belfast tallies there was an interesting new phenomenon among the spoils from nationalist areas. There was a noticeable growth in the number of blank ballots.  In subsequent conversations with members of other tally teams the same issue was spotted in other republican areas.

What is a likely explanation of this?  No dissident grouping was advocating this approach (AFAIK). Sinn Fein have a reputation for being able to identify who hasn't voted during election day and getting them along to the polling station.  It would appear some may be going along at their encouragement, taking their papers but not casting their vote.  We are dealing with dozens possibly creeping over a into the low 100's in a single constituency but possibly worth adding into the discussion on spoils.    

Programme

The UUP negotiated our present system and as late as 2007 remained fully supportive of it.  Its 2007 manifesto was the keenest in getting the present system up and running again:

"We are the only Party prepared to pledge to you, the voters, that we will take our seats in government and govern for the good of Northern Ireland within the United Kingdom."

So while the UUP has come late to the need to reform the system the fact they have turned up at all should be welcomed.  The one new idea in Tom Elliott's address was about agreeing the Programme for Government (PfG) before D'hondt is run.  The idea has an attraction in terms of its basic principle.  However, there are tactical and practical considerations in any assessment.  

Tactically, do we focus on getting directly to the goal of Voluntary Coalition or tinker with the present system of Mandatory Coalition?  This proposal is tinkering with the present Mandatory Coalition system not changing it to Voluntary Coalition.

Practically there are a number of issues:

Time Limits - There are time limits on the formation of an Executive.  Therefore, it is a recipe for hothouse negotiations something Northern Ireland has experience of but something the intention had been to move away from.

Coalition Model - Tom's answer to this is the national government's coalition agreement.  If they can do it in five days why can't we? Spend a while reading the Coalition Agreement.  Tally up how many issues within it were sent to reviews, panels, commissions, decided later and a co-opt.  List the issues that it does not cover. Is it the model of full agreement and consensus it was presented as?

The PfG - The PfG is actually a document that requires the full participation of the Civil Service and is subject to public consultation, EQIAs etc.  The role of the NICS pre-formation of the Executive could only be limited.  Add in the time limits and how significant a document would the parties produce?

However, all of this misses the bigger picture.  The fundamental problem for people who believe in VC is the extreme hostility to any change from nationalist parties.  Simply challenging the weakness of the nationalist position won't work.  Hence why Nigel Dodds argued in his DUP conference speech:

"It is the DUP that sets the agenda on moving Stormont towards a voluntary coalition. On voluntary coalition I add this: there are fears of what such a system would mean. It is our job to identify them and address them. We must become the persuaders for change not just its advocates." 

Believers in VC having a debate amongst ourselves about tactics and details doesn't address that real barrier to change.

Sceptic

With the Assembly heading towards completing an uninterupted term, this leads to the obvious question of how it was achieved when previous attempts failed?

Factors like events and St Andrews leading to the resolution and tying down of issues reduced the number of potential landmines as the instrumentalism of the process declined towards a more constitutive conclusion.  The two largest parties, that create the core of the Executive, being more disciplined helped too.  However, has their scepticism of mandatory coalition from these two parties assisted in it working?

The DUP made it consistently clear it was not a fan of our system of government.  While Sinn Fein signed up to Stormont and devolution it is often forgotten that they held out on this to the very conclusion of the negotiations of the Belfast Agreement - IIRC their alternative to an Assembly being over 90 powerful local councils (yes you read that right over 90).  Has this scepticism of the system made them better at making it work?

Pie

With Trimblesque skill McNarry's prediction that a draft budget was pie in sky has been disproved within 48 hours with it now on the table for people to inspect.  Beyond providing a lesson in the dangers of political predictions the big politics of this should be recognised, the Executive has passed another major test. 

The obvious test at the start of this term was the devolution of Policing and Justice and this was achieved.  Circumstances then created budget issues for it to handle.  The NI Executive was the only devolved administration to implement the emergency budget cuts in this budget year (which helped created some breathing space in the next financial year).  

The Comprehensive Spending Review gave it a much bigger task.  The easy option would have been to cut a one year deal and a number of commentators predicted just that.  It didn't.  It went for the four year package.  While this draft budget will invariably involve pain when it is finalised it will mitigate it to some degree by providing people will have a degree of certainty of how much pain, when it will come and for how long.

The consultation process on the draft is a test for our broader civic society to see if they can behave as responsibly and where the seek changes to cuts that they provide credible alternatives of where else they should fall.

Today it should be acknowledged that Stormont and how it operates may not always be quick or pretty but it is functioning.

Plan B

While the media will be predictably fixated on Finucane.  Buried in the US cables is confirmation that a unpalatable Plan B did exist if the attempts to restore devolution had failed.  In a released US diplomatic cable the then Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern explained that:

"..."Plan B" (indefinite suspension of the Assembly and joint UK/Irish stewardship of the Northern political process) would take effect..."

Salt

The Nolan show was in full frenzy whipping mode about salting of paths at Stormont.  When I heard the report I was surprised by the claim that all the paths were salted having had to negotiate them the day previously.  Their reporter on the spot repeatedly described the paths clear.  Now Ian McCrea MLA has provided some pics from Stormont providing images directly contradicting the claims.

Arnie

George Savage MLA may not come to mind when looking for an Arnie/Terminator type but in the Portadown Times he's trying to do his best I'll be back impression.  He states:

"...watch this space. The Upper Bann constituency hasn't seen the last of George Savage MLA."

Curiously he hinted of:

"...a group of malcontents could emerge from Ulster Unionism to set up a party within a party..."

Meanwhile his fellow non-selectee Harry Hamilton claims:

"...his moderate type of Unionism had been rejected by the old guard."

Immediate

Apparently Harry Hamilton, the UCUNF Upper Bann candidate in the 2010 Westminster election, has told a local newspaper, the Banbridge Chronicle, that he has "no immediate future in the UUP".  This follows his failure to be selected as an Assembly candidate.  There is some ambiguity in that comment but it's hardly a ringing endorsement either.  So is a third Westminster candidate heading for the door?

Judging from the local papers the UUP have been fighting like a bag of cats over the Assembly selections and in the interests on internal harmony they have made the unwise decision to run three candidates.  They have failed the getting it test and learned little from their near miss in 2007.

I've never met the man but he came across in the documentary about his campaign, Queen and Country, as a decent bloke. Although he was a bit naive and inexperienced in terms of campaigning.  An eve of poll leaflet is a standard tool, primarily to push turnout rather than change minds.  He and his campaign manager came across as entirely blindsided by the DUP using one and thus tried to blame it falsely for the result.  Regardless, the result he achieved - a comparable performance with Trimble in 2005 - was creditable especially when the media fascinated on one aspect of his life, the Freddie Mercury impersonations.

Long Standing

"It is a long standing position of the Ulster Unionist Party that Northern Ireland needs a more normalised form of Government with a voluntary 'cross-community' coalition..."

Was it really? How long-standing? Only 4 years ago during the St Andrews negotiations the voices for such a change were restricted to the DUP and Alliance while the UUP argued against it?  The biggest opportunity for such a change since 1998 was missed with UUP complicity.  Perhaps it is a more recent discovery.

Also there is no barrier whatsoever to the Assembly having an opposition tomorrow.  The UUP can leave the Executive.  So why not act on what they advocate?  Perhaps this is what he means with this awkwardly phrased conclusion to his statement:

"in the short-term the principled following of democratic parliamentary principles by political parties may be what is required to improve governance in Northern Ireland."

However enough of poking a stick at the UUP.  On the bright side it does confirm that the Unionist parties have the exact same policy on the future development of government structures here.  Now perhaps we could turn ourselves to the task of persuading nationalists of its benefits and addressing their fears.  Also as devolution was over sold we have to be careful how we sell voluntary coaltion.  The Coalition government demonstrates how uncomfortable even a voluntary arrangement can be. 

Two pictures

After I got a pass for Stormont, one of the things I noticed early on was two pictures on the wall as you entered the canteen.  They were of the Assembly staff standing on the steps.  The pictures were taken seven years apart (IIRC the first in 2002 and the second in 2009).  Throughout that time the Assembly had not grown in powers (although by the second devolution was running without interruption).  However, the amount of space taken up by the number of staff had grown very noticeably.  A recent Assembly question confirmed this growth, almost 50% in five years.

Today the Assembly adopted a motion proposed by Peter Robinson making the Assembly Commission subject to the same cuts as elsewhere in government.  This needs to happen not only for the reality of our public finances because no cost-cutting programme will be taken seriously without it being clear that the political institutions are subject to the same as every other part of government.  They should also perhaps be thankful that more is not being sought of them.

(Note I had always intended to take a photo of the two pictures so I could blog on the topic. They would have been good visual aids to the incremental growth of government through lost of small decisions. However, I kept forgetting my camera and was told they were recently removed.  So I'm afraid you'll have to take my word for it.)

Choices

In amongst Dissenter's analysis of what is wrong with 'liberal' Unionism he outlines another sticky choice when it comes to candidate selections for Tom Elliott - ditch a sitting MLA (McClarty) or ditch the party's female Westminster candidate (Macaulay):

"...David McClarty cannot now be selected on appeal to the Party Executive without the second most popular candidate being selected. The problem? That would mean candidates would both be men. On the other hand, there is a risk of alienating or demoralising a substantial proportion of the constituency association."

If this representation is accurate then either has its problems.  If McClarty is chosen, then unlike Paula Bradshaw's non-selection, blaming the constituency association defence is simply unavailable.  This will have been a conscious decision of the centre.  If he isn't Dissenter points to the obvious campaigning problems.

Anything else could lead to the now almost obligatory threat of a legal challenge (already rumoured to have been threatened in one other constituency).  He could funk it and go for three to avoid too much of a row (rather this would more likely delay it to the election itself with different campaign teasm trying to do one another over).  However, with a 2010 Westminster performance of just over a quota this would sow the seeds for an Ulster Unionist equivalent of the SDLP's West Tyrone debacle in the 2007 Assembly election.  It could also increase the likelihood of a nationalist gain already increased to a degree by the new boundaries for East Londonderry.

Particularism

The Assembly Public Attitude survey has been getting some attention.  (What are the odds that is going to be one of the things to be cut in the not too distant future?)  However, does it really dsiplay a particular crisis of local confidence or an example of our normality?

Ministerial Choices

In an exclusive interview for Farm Week, Tom Elliott has held out the prospect of the UUP taking the Agriculture Ministry after the Assembly election. 

"The suckler and beef farmer from County Fermanagh even held out the prospect of an Ulster Unionist Agriculture Minister..."

The nature of the ministerial appointment system means only one choice can be guaranteed - the very first one and that falls to the largest party.  After that choices are shaped by the decisions of others.  Basil had prioritised education as the UUP's preferred first choice of ministry (assuming it was still available) is Tom going to make Agriculture the UUP's first choice (assuming it is still available)?

Health woes

Michael McGimpsey has had to apologise for inaccurate comments he made to the Assembly concerning the Donagh child abuse case.  On Tuesday in his normal patronising tone he'd explained to Arlene Foster, DETI Minister, that:

"Because this individual has “Doctor” in front of his name, it is assumed that he works for the Trust and, therefore, spoke on behalf of the Trust, and everyone is attacking the social worker and the Trust. However, that is not the situation..."

Yet yesterday he admitted this was inaccurate explaining he had mixed up two doctors partially because of the demands of the health post.  However, this may not be the only issue that arises from Tuesday (pdf file).  In an adjournment debate of the issue of Lagan Valley hospital

"I add my appreciation of the staff of the hospital and the South Eastern Health and Social Care Trust, who are committed to providing high quality health and social care to people in their community."

He emphasised his approach to health care as:

"I continually say that quality plus safety equals outcome plus efficiency. Quality and safety are always paramount in our minds."

During ministerial questions he went on to warn that because of budget issues:

"...there will no longer be a British health service in Northern Ireland"

However, a front page story in the Newtownards Chronicle (not online) puts his quality and standard of service comments into focus. 

It revealed that the South Eastern Trust rents property from a Company of which the Health Minister is a Director (NB This directorship is declared on the register of interests).  It also detailed two problems with one of the rented buildings (39 Regent Street) - heating and only partial disability access.  A staff member commented that:

"The building is not well-maintained. We don't feel very well treated."

The UUP declined to comment on the story.  His brother and fellow Director, Christopher McGimpsey, said they had only been informed of the heating issues a week ago and the Trust knew about the access issues when they signed the lease.  He said his brother was not involved in the day to day running of the Company.  The paper highlighted how the most recent accounts lodged with the Companies House were signed by the Health minister.

Assembly 2011 and the DUP

There is a DUP double whammy in the Belfast Telegraph today with an major set piece interview with party Leader Peter Robinson and an opinion piece by Deputy Leader Nigel Dodds.  The UUP and media have been fixating on the First Minister issue for a while now and had predicted it would be the central part of the DUP campaign.  However, as usual their abilities to predict what the DUP will do seems to have failed them.  Both make the DUP position clear as regards the Assembly election.  The First Minister rejects the idea that it will be the core of the DUP camapign:

"That won't be the kernel of our campaign.  I hope our campaign will be much more positive than that."

While Nigel Dodds argues voter attitudes are shifting and the DUP will recognise this:

"...voter attitudes are shifting.  Any politician campaigning on the streets of Belfast or the lanes of Tyrone who thinks they can simply expect to (a) vote and (b) vote for them based in the flag on their rosette will be in for a surprise.  There may have been a time when votes could be expected much more than earned, but that day has passed...in 2011, my party will not be stirring up fear - we will be taking a positive message to the voters...It will offer a positive vision, the strongest team and the best plan to steer Northern Ireland through the difficult years ahead as we deal with the Con Dem Cuts"

So in 2011 it looks like they will be following the model of the 2010 Westminster campaign and not the 2009 European campaign.

Justice

The referee of yesterday's match has now admitted their error after watching the video footage.  The second penalty should not have been awarded.

Daylight Robbery

There were calls for a FIFA investigation following the politicians versus media football match this afternoon at the new Playball facility in the Stormont grounds.  The politicians scored twice from open play, the DUP's Paul Givan and Alliance's Chris Lyttle both beating the media's skilful keeper Mark Simpson.  The media clawed the result back to 2 all thanks to two penalties including a very dubious second handball decision.  In the penalty shoot-out the media eeked out a 4-3 win.

The BBC's Stephen Nolan was the only player carded for a vicious tackle.  Questions are also being asked of the politicians manager, Dawn Purvis, who failed to intervene earlier with the entertaining but dodgy keeping of Kieran McCarthy.

While we are at it...

Just spotted this piece by Rick Wilford on the topic discussed at breakfast tables across the land, the operation of Assembly committees.  He argues that the number and size of them means:

"...one may form the impression that most of our MLAs are rather like hamsters running around a wheel: busy, but not especially productive"

If the opportunity to reduce the number of local departments (and MLAs) arises, it could be an opportunity to reform the committee system as well.

Getting It - a test

A while back I mentioned how neither of the two likely leadership candidates seemed to have 'got it' about the situation the UUP finds itself in.  However, any organisation is more than those at the top so there is a an opportunity for others in the organisation to act realistically and credibly.

Chekov has pointed out the rather odd process the UUP has adopted with regards to its review, leadership and assembly selection:

"So Ulster Unionists intend, first to ink in candidates to stand for Stormont and then decide on a change of direction. In that order.  Now, clearly the UUP has taken the Westminster selection debacle to heart, but might the party’s future direction and new leader not determine who it wants to put up for election?"

However, the assembly selections will be an indication of whether or not the grassroots appreciate what is going on.  In the past UUP Assembly selections have made internal sense (management of factions) rather than electoral sense with the net result being lost seats. For example the decision to run three in Strangford, South Belfast and Upper Bann contributed to losing two seats and almost cost a third. 

So will the grassroots show realism with the number of people they select in constituencies? Will they act sensibly and balance the ticket geographically?  Will they be willing to make the changes to present a different face to the electorate?

There is also the issue that a degree of co-operation with the DUP on numbers being run and on transfers would be of assistance to both.  Will the grassroots approach this with a sense of practicalism or remain trapped in conspiracy theories?

Participation (Part II)

It appears questions over participation aren't restricted to Westminster.  The Irish News has today published vote participation figures for our local MLAs.  They are:

Average Voting Record by Party (Assembly Term Since 2007)

DUP 81%

SDLP 78%

SF 74%

ALL 66%

UUP 60%

Four of the top five vote attendees are in the DUP and the fifth is Patsy McGlone of the SDLP.  Voting isn't the only measure by any means but it can be part of the package.  Committee participation might be something worth examining as well.