Sunday, 25 April 2010

Threats to the Union

The Ulster Unionists and Conservatives have been going big on a hung parliament being a threat to the Union. This is on the basis that the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cmyru could wield an influence. However, a poll in Scotland highlights how a Tory win will have implications for the Union.

A YouGov poll (who are one of the Tory party's pollsters) showed that:

" anti-Tory backlash in Scotland would push support for separatism from 31% now to 40%. Opposition to independence would fall from 54% to 43%"

The poll also shows the Tories on 15% in Scotland (their lowest for 3 years) so the small gains (2-4 more seats) they had hoped for now seem unlikely. Also such is the mistrust of the Tories by Scottish voters that they are minded to punish the SNP if it does a deal with the Conservatives.
With no advance in Scotland, the tacit abandonment of the Ulster Unionist pact and the attack on the North-East of England it looks like the poll squeeze has made the Tories pursue a more obvious southern england strategy.

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