Ouch

The Anglo-Irish Bank bailout has increased to 34.3 billion euros.  Irish tax revenues in 2009 were only 33 billion euros.

Good Samaritan

Thanks to the kind individual who retrieved and returned my blackberry that I'd managed to drop in the middle of the street beside City Hall this afternoon.

Self Improvement

I've decided it's time I try and do something about my level of swearing. Hence anyone conversing with me should expect more ponderous moments as I try to fill the gaps.  Any suggestions of entertaining subsitute words are welcome.

The wonderful word of Ulster sport

Hat Tip O.

Same old Clinton?

Take a close look at the last picture in this series.

Johnny Cash

Been in one of my black moods for a few days - probably a side effect of thinking about the UUP.  So time for some Cash.  Hurt if incredible would be too predictable. Instead I offer my second favourite track from that album.

Quote of the day

Telephone conversation late yesterday evening with a relative:

"I've been to hear a motivational speaker.  I now know how to make love to chocolate and ride the laughter bicycle."

Sometimes huh is the only logical response.

Critical Reaction

You may have noticed a lack of blogging on my part over the past few days.  This is because I was kindly asked by the Critical Reaction website to produce a piece on the UUP following its election of Tom Elliott as leader.  My brief was to produce something comparable to the big threads I used to do occasionally under the Fair Deal nom de guerre on slugger so it is a somewhat lengthy essay. 

The site editor has also done some nice polishing of the text which makes it a better read.

Happy Ulster Day

Today is the 98th anniversary of the first Ulster day, 28th September 1912.  When the Ulster Solemn League and Covenant was signed by 237,368 men and its sister Declaration signed by 234,046 women.

The Covenant stated:

"BEING CONVINCED in our consciences that Home Rule would be disastrous to the material well-being of Ulster as well as of the whole of Ireland, subversive of our civil and religious freedom, destructive of our citizenship, and perilous to the unity of the Empire, we, whose names are underwritten, men of Ulster, loyal subjects of His Gracious Majesty King George V., humbly relying on the God whom our fathers in days of stress and trial confidently trusted, do hereby pledge ourselves in solemn Covenant, throughout this our time of threatened calamity, to stand by one another in defending, for ourselves and our children, our cherished position of equal citizenship in the United Kingdom, and in using all means which may be found necessary to defeat the present conspiracy to set up a Home Rule Parliament in Ireland. And in the event of such a Parliament being forced upon us, we further solemnly and mutually pledge ourselves to refuse to recognize its authority. In sure confidence that God will defend the right, we hereto subscribe our names.  And further, we individually declare that we have not already signed this Covenant."

The Declaration stated:

"We, whose names are underwritten, women of Ulster, and loyal subjects of our gracious King, being firmly persuaded that Home Rule would be disastrous to our Country, desire to associate ourselves with the men of Ulster in their uncompromising opposition to the Home Rule Bill now before Parliament, whereby it is proposed to drive Ulster out of her cherished place in the Constitution of the United Kingdom, and to place her under the domination and control of a Parliament in Ireland.  Praying that from this calamity God will save Ireland, we here to subscribe our names."

Later a sister document the British Covenant would attract some two million signatories on the mainland before the start of the Great War.  The Irish News somewhat unwisely dismissed the entire thing as a "farce", "circus" and "highly ludicrous".

Sense or Popcorn?

Michael McGimpsey is up today to give his apology to the Assembly for giving an inaccurate answer about the Donagh case.  Will he do the sensible thing and offer a simple and straightforward apology for the mistake (and if he is very sensible the condescensing attitude he adopted)  or will he continue with his confrontational style?  UPDATE He went wth option 3 - he postponed.

In the army now

I still have the cassette single (remember them) of the original (somewhere) but here is the new one released in aid of Help for Heroes. You can buy it here.

Ignorance

I was doing my usual Sunday trawl of websites and newspapers to see if there was anything I felt like writing about. However, the election of Ed Milliband as the new Labour leader is the predominant story.  I'll have to admit that I have not kept up with this race or the internal and external politics of it (I saw Crick's piece on his father and suffered about 15 minutes of the dire Miliband of Brothers.  That's pretty much it.).  As I have explained before the dynamics of a coalition are something I am interested in following so it has been the national story I try to keep track of.  So I therefore simply declare my ignorance of what this does and doesn't mean for the Labour Party and our national politics.  Although I do find this detail interesting.

PS On Miliband of Brothers I get the derivative thinking 'people get their news and politics from comedy these days blah blah' with the result a programme that tries to be documentary meets the Daily Show.   However, the fusion didn't work and unlike the Daily Show, it forgot the funny.

Quote of the day

"Although it's a much much lower threat than used to be from the Provisional IRA say, in the 70s, 80s and early 90s, it's clear that there is an episodic and occasionally lethal threat from those who are still unreconciled to the current arrangement.  Over the last five years they have killed nine people, which is an awful thing but nothing like enough to derail the current option of political progress through peace rather than violence."

Richard English of QUB on the nature and scale of the dissident threat.

False idol?

Mike Nesbitt has made his contribution to the Union 2021 series. It has a number of odd elements. For example he begins by arguing:

"As a broadcast journalist, interviewing Ian Paisley and the other unionist leaders of the 1980s, I felt they were missing a trick. Had I been Paisley or Jim Molyneaux, I would have driven down to the Office of An Taoiseach, and offered Charlie Haughey a United Ireland there and then, on the simple condition the Republic match NI’s budgets for Health, Schools, Roads, and the rest. Would Haughey not have insisted on offering an armed Garda escort back to the border with a lifetime ban on a return visit? The Republican could not afford us then, any more than they can today."

The idea would have been pointless stunt politics that shows an inclination to headlines not narrative. Its underlying basis has two worrying elements. It presents Unionism as based on the rejection of something, Irish unity, rather than a belief in the Union and presents support for the Union as an accountant's calculation. (UPDATE Bobballs on Open Unionism defends the comment here. He argues it is a self-evident truth - the republic can't afford us - but that doesn't give any means to highlight it merit nor deal with its reductionism of Unionism to negativism and money.  Reductionism is something I have previously criticised in other contributions.).  A second oddity is a comment about churches:

"In 2010, our government endorses segregated housing, segregated education, segregated leisure spaces, and denominationally discrete churches."

Highlighting the issue of segregation is perfectly valid but why are churches on the list? How exactly does a government endorse discrete churches? What is being implied government should do about churches?

The third is a curiosity rather than an oddity. He continues the UUP obsession with the First Minister post calling for a referendum on the issue. Why this fixation? If the UUP is convinced it is electorally harmful then drawing attention to it could add to the harm rather than mitigating against it. If they try and fail to change it they look ineffectual. Neither do they seem to have thought more than one step ahead on the issue.  If they did somehow change it they'd probably face a backlash about not being able to do the same on NI's budget reinforcing a perception of being divorced from the day-to-day issues. Perhaps they hope a blame game will harm the DUP but can that be guaranteed? If they did succeed in convincing a voter of the DUP being at fault that doesn't necessarily lead to a desire to punish but the voter can opt to deal with the circumstances as they are now.

Nesbitt's, like many contributions to the Union 2021 series, has become too attracted to the idol of economics. His argument is barefaced in its economic determinism:

"In 2010, the Union remains an economic imperative, and that is not going to change by 2021."

Why is the economic case so heavily relied upon in a visioning exercise? The economy is particularly prevalent in peoples' minds right now. It is a case with lots of evidence to support it. It is also the more socially acceptable argument - why get involved in a debate around something trickier like identity at the dinner table when you can just invoke wallet?

However, the economics of the Union are nothing new. It has been a central plank of its case since the beginning. When the Ulster Liberals put their case to Gladstone against Home Rule he recognised its validity. Yet throughout that time it has failed to be an effective persuader for the Union among Irish nationalists. It may from polls look like it'll work in a referendum booth but it has not worked at election time.

Has it changed into Unionism's silver bullet now? The argument would be the increased wealth of the nationalist community has made them more appreciative of the economic case. However, throughout this growth in wealth the nationalist vote rose and ultimately plumped for the more virulent form. Therefore the immediate evidence offers little support. There is also the broader issue of emotion in someone's political choice and how the means to effect that choice is through narrative (even how belief is reinforced by error). How many good stories have been written with statistics?

So throughout the Union 2021 series have we made a false idol of economics?

Health woes

Michael McGimpsey has had to apologise for inaccurate comments he made to the Assembly concerning the Donagh child abuse case.  On Tuesday in his normal patronising tone he'd explained to Arlene Foster, DETI Minister, that:

"Because this individual has “Doctor” in front of his name, it is assumed that he works for the Trust and, therefore, spoke on behalf of the Trust, and everyone is attacking the social worker and the Trust. However, that is not the situation..."

Yet yesterday he admitted this was inaccurate explaining he had mixed up two doctors partially because of the demands of the health post.  However, this may not be the only issue that arises from Tuesday (pdf file).  In an adjournment debate of the issue of Lagan Valley hospital

"I add my appreciation of the staff of the hospital and the South Eastern Health and Social Care Trust, who are committed to providing high quality health and social care to people in their community."

He emphasised his approach to health care as:

"I continually say that quality plus safety equals outcome plus efficiency. Quality and safety are always paramount in our minds."

During ministerial questions he went on to warn that because of budget issues:

"...there will no longer be a British health service in Northern Ireland"

However, a front page story in the Newtownards Chronicle (not online) puts his quality and standard of service comments into focus. 

It revealed that the South Eastern Trust rents property from a Company of which the Health Minister is a Director (NB This directorship is declared on the register of interests).  It also detailed two problems with one of the rented buildings (39 Regent Street) - heating and only partial disability access.  A staff member commented that:

"The building is not well-maintained. We don't feel very well treated."

The UUP declined to comment on the story.  His brother and fellow Director, Christopher McGimpsey, said they had only been informed of the heating issues a week ago and the Trust knew about the access issues when they signed the lease.  He said his brother was not involved in the day to day running of the Company.  The paper highlighted how the most recent accounts lodged with the Companies House were signed by the Health minister.

Quote of the day

"In 1998, the Belfast Agreement envisaged a specific set of circumstances under which Northern Ireland might have a Sinn Fein first minister, and the people said “yes” to that in the referendum."

Mike Nesbitt

Warning

The Ultonia wagon has been placed in the hands of a garage this morning to investigate odd noises coming from the rear brakes.  This may lead to higher than normal levels of grumpiness as the day progresses. UPDATE Grumble mumble kick bin moneyboxes on wheels etc etc

Who do you think you are?

So arrogant worth highlighting twice.

Law and Order

Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary has produced an interesting report (pdf file) on Anti-Social Behaviour.  It sets out the situation well that in terms of law and order the focus has been upon law while the harm of disorder de-prioritised.

"The truth is that despite its high public profile in recent years, ASB does not have the same status as ‘crime’ for the police. There are consequences to this.

Very importantly, the public draw no meaningful distinction between crime and ASB.  They exist on the same spectrum of bad or very bad behaviour. The public find it immaterial that the most insidious individual incidents of ‘pestering’, ‘taunting’ or ‘targeting’ individuals – including the most vulnerable - may not qualify technically as “crimes” with a prospect of prosecution. They dislike ASB, worry about reporting it,and are intimidated in significant numbers when they do.

However, for some people in policing and some outside, dealing with issues that qualify as crime is ‘real police work’. After all, for almost 20 years the police record of accomplishment and failure has been expressed, increasingly strongly, in terms of crime statistics. Meanwhile, the “non-qualifying” ASB issue, and its variants, that signal lack of control on our streets, have grown and evolved in intensity and harm."

Locally, there is no reason to believe that the PSNI's ability to deal with the issue is any better than their English and Welsh equivalents.  This inability has a broader ramification for Northern Ireland as it is a means of dissidents inveigling themselves into communities.

Breakdown in Law and Order