Base, how low can you go?

25-5 is the prediction of one Lib Dem Cabinet minister of the respective poll positions of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats this time next year with the theory that fear will hold the Coalition together.  It may hold the Westminster parties together but anything like such a performance in the local government elections will have a devastating impact upon the Liberal Democrats in particular with an internal war or loss of activists or both highly likely.  The Rawnsley piece argues that the 1920's are the historical precedent:

"There has not been a spending squeeze like it, remarks this minister with a sense of history, since "the Geddes Axe". Then, too, Britain was ruled by a Tory-Liberal coalition. Then, too, its policy was driven by alarm about the national finances, in that case the debt run up during the First World War. Sir Eric Geddes, a businessman, was put in charge of a committee to recommend cuts. By the time his blade had stopped swinging, the defence budget had been slashed by more than 40% and the number of civil servants had been reduced by over a third."

In terms of media and message the cuts programme is essentially a crisis period with the standard advice to have a strong media presence with a consistent message. Yet it seems to ensure the latter the Coalition is foregoing the former.  Neither will it be helped if the sense that Osborne is enjoying is role takes hold.

On a local level those who think we can keep simply get immunity from what is coming down the line should heed these warnings:

"The cabinet minister leant back into his chair and took a fortifying swig of his drink. Then, in a voice that blended bravado with fatalism, he said: "It's going to be absolutely horrendous. We're doomed to be extremely unpopular. Doooomed."  He was anticipating the public reaction to the ferocity of the spending squeeze that George Osborne will unveil in just five weeks' time. Put aside everything else that has occurred in the life of the coalition to date. None of it amounts to anything more than foreplay compared with the comprehensive spending review, the results of which are scheduled to be announced on 20 October."

Shoulders to the wheel

DUP leader and First Minister Peter Robinson has set out the task of the Executive and Assembly to deal with the looming budget cuts.  He repeats the NICVA warning of the level of cuts we can expect.  He predicts that they could have a:

"...devastating impact and likely bog Northern Ireland down in recession for a prolonged period."

He outlines that while the situation is not of the Executive's making it represents the biggest test for our devolved structures.  He argues that if this economic impact is to be tackled then:

 

"...the Executive’s main priority must be to keep people in work and put people back to work. If necessary, budgets should be skewed to maximise the effect of public expenditure in keeping the economy moving forward."

 

He rejects salami slicing arguing and that he has instructed DUP minister to act in broad not departmental interests:

 

"...the Executive must agree a strategic approach to the challenges that we are faced with...I have told my party’s Ministers that their key goal must be to do what is best for Northern Ireland as a whole regardless of whether it is in the narrow interests of their departments."

He concludes with the warning:

"Given the scale of the Coalition's cuts, very difficult and unpopular decisions are inevitable but I believe that the Executive is capable of responding to the challenge. Many people will rightly judge the Executive and Assembly on this basis.”

NICVA have been leading the way on the public debate on cuts and it appears that the business sector are developing proposals on how to tackle the cuts.  The independent report commissioned by the Scottish Government gives a thorough summary of what a cuts programme could involve.

Why believe him?

Michael O'Leary has announced Ryanair are pulling out of Belfast City Airport.  The excuse given is the process over the runway extension.  This seems to have been accepted at face value with some using it as a predictable platform to start criticising the Executive.

One keen twitterer has pointed out a number of recent actual and threatened withdrawals by Ryanair from airports - example 1, example 2, example 3, example 4, example 5.  The consistent thing between these and the Belfast story is how it is always someone else's fault but Ryanair's and unrelated to a decline in passenger numbers.  All of them could be found with a quick google.

When a man tells you he is:

"An obnoxious little bollocks... a gobshite."

And according to an independent review operates an unethical business, why would anyone believe a word he says?

Abolish it

The Department of Education that is.  It is in the headlines again today on the issue of capital under-spends.  I realise this proposal will not be the most popular in Northern Ireland with the government doing it always a first preference and no it isn't driven by the present incumbent (although she's not a great advertisement to keep it going).

However, considering the range of issues surrounding education would it not be wisest to empower the parents? Instead of a department and boards making the decisions, government restricts its role to setting the curriculum, inspecting the schools and administering the vouchers.  Top-ups to the basic scheme on the basis of need, excellence and access (rural, language, disability) could potentially be included.  The rest of the decisions would be left to schools and parents.  Too much too soon?

A scandal in need of a story

Two offer their different perspectives on where the Northern Ireland Water story is at and where it could go - Mick Fealty and David Gordon.  As the story has developed the Belfast Telegraph, which (I think) exclusively revealed the procurement issues, took something of a sceptical stance while the rest of the media pack has bigged up what happened after.  While Slugger O'Toole has been pushing that there was much more to the story and nudged the MSM to look again.

One fo the few advantages of being part of the political class is you get to know more of the possible ins and outs beyond what is in the public domain (often for very good legal reasons).  The behind the scenes tussle has largely been the conspiracy theory versus the cock-up theory.  To be fair to the conspiracy theorists what has been entering the public arena has done more to bolster their case than those who tried to play it down but no silver bullet yet.  However, when you put all that is floating about together it looks a like a cock-up that was used for conspiratorial ends.

Beyond the moves and dodges going on what about the average member of the public?  The scandal has a problem. To date it is a series of FoI's, emails, letters, leaks and a large cast of characters, Chris Donnelly picked this up in his thread name.  There is not presently a narrative or story to it all linking the chain of events together without it the story will not have the impact on public opinion that some would wish it to have.  Granted some may be playing it safe until they get more evidence but without it the important question of why remains unanswered.

Thisgate?

So with the issues around the Department of Regional Development (DRD), Northern Ireland Water (NIW) and those 4 Non-Executive Directors still continuing, it appears to me that it is in need of a short-hand name.

It is an unwritten rule that it any scandal story needs -gate as an ending so what gate should it be?  Watergate would seem the most obvious but already taken.  Ulster's Watergate obviously has its appeal to me (but it wouldn't be sensible to conflate the two).  Also as the story develops it appears to be as much about DRD as it does NIW.  However, DRDgate and NIWgate don't exactly roll off the tongue.  Perhaps as it has been a PAC investigation (and attempted interference with it) we should give it the credit with PACgate.  Alternatively we could go for one of the key players.  With the ongoing investigation Priestleygate may be seen as too much of a pre-judgement but Minister Murphy is a politician and therefore a different kettle of fish so how about Murphygate?

Feel free to make your own suggestions, the usual prize of a rare copy of Cecil Walker: My Political Vision will be awarded.

After Priestly

The suspension of Paul Priestly will most likely delay/hamper what the Assembly Committees will be able to do until the Northern Ireland Civil Service concludes its own investigation and possible disciplinary procedures.  The story on the other hand will turn in focus to what the Minister, Conor Murphy, did or did not know and was Priestly acting on his instruction.

Today's News Letter reveals some ministerial directions on the IRT report.  However, on reading them there is no smoking gun yet.  The ministerial demand for clarity is general rather than the specific and targeted clarity targued for.  If Priestly were acting on ministerial instruction he will have every incentive to reveal so.  

Mentality

Yesterday appears to be have been a good day for devolution.  Paul Priestly, the Permanent Secretary of the Department of Regional Development has been suspended from his job it seems because of his role in a letter that tried to frustrate the investigation of the Assembly's Public Accounts Committee.  With his minister describing his position as untenable it is hard to imagine how he can return.

If devolution was to make officials more accountable then one of them at the most senior level has been made just that.  The procurement issues at NI Water shouldn't be brushed under the rug but those problems don't justify the subsequent actions especially as regards the PAC.

Something of note is that Priestly spent a chunk of his career in the Northern Ireland Office.  His actions perhaps provide an insight into the NIO mentality towards local politicians and accountability.  It demonstrates an advantage of our flawed system of devolution over Direct Rule.  It is hard to imagine this process and official being subject to anything like the same scrutiny under Direct Rule.

UPDATE Mick Fealty highlights the rarity of the situation:

"For the first time in the history of Northern Ireland and only the second time in the history of the British Civil Service a Permanent Secretary has been suspended."

The Maze buildings and de-listing

The announcement of proposals to develop the former Maze site has raised the issue of de-listing of the remaining buildings of the prison.  The powers of the Environment minister and the legislation under which it was listed has been mangled in the discussion.

Economics and Unionism

Graham Gudgin has provided the second contribution in the Union 2021 series with significant challenge in its content.  His focus is upon economics and Unionism.  His analysis seems somewhat tainted by what appears to be negative experiences of the UUP, like most economists he doesn't grasp that a politician has to marry economic necessity with the politically possible and fails to sufficiently acknowledge the steps towards a greater policy focus that have been made.  However, this doesn't take away from the fundamentals of his argument.

He stresses the scale of the economic difficulties our region faces:

"This was sustainable during the UK's debt-driven boom, with ever increasing amounts of money flowing into Northern Ireland, but in a post-recession world realities must now be faced.  Cuts will reduce public services by 15 percent over five years, economic growth will slow to a trickle and unemployment will rise."

Something I doubt people have yet truly grasped here.  He rightly highlights a problem in Northern Ireland's governance that is often overlooked, the bureaucracy:

"The relevant civil service departments show little desire for radical change and as have allowed their capacity for strategic economic thinking to wither away."

Gudgin also does not dimiss Unionist Unity out of hand but grasps its potential for a new departure in Unionism:

"Should the two main unionist parties unite to prevent such a prospect? Only if they could do so around a radical and reformist economic programme."

He concludes that:

"Unionism faces a choice as it looks towards 2021.  It can either fight an unsuccessful rearguard action on economic change or it can embrace reforms as part of a modern unionist programme."

But expresses doubts that it will happen, that may be less of a problem than he imagines.

Remember AME

Tomorrow will not be a happy day for anyone as the Con Dem Coalition presents its emergency budget. Judging by the 'authorising environment' leaks VAT will be the headline story - something that Taxpayers Alliance has pointed out neither party has a mandate for:

The justification that they didn't know how big the hole was especially on debt repayment levels doesn't hold water. The Institute for Fiscal Studies was well aware of it (pdf file) but somehow we are expected to believe it escaped the notice of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Also the fact that the budget deficit of the year has decreased undermines this as well but only slightly as a deficit of over £150 billion as opposed to over £170bn is not a case for reaching for the champagne bottle.

However, the doom and gloom now has an economic and a political purpose. Economically, the aim is to create a virtuous cycle - paint it as bleak, act as if it is bleak and then take the confidence boost when things (hopefully) don't turn out as bleak. Politically the logic is that a bit more pain now will actually create more breathing room later. Essentially, when will an extra billion here or there get you a political reward - in the next couple of years by dissipating a little the depth of cut or a tax cut/boost to health in the year or so before an election?

In terms of Northern Ireland, the public discussion has been upon the Departmental Expenditure Limits, commonly referred to as the block grant. The broad shape should become clear in tomorrow's budget but the full detail will be from the Comprehensive Spending Review later in the year. However, in terms of the economic impact we need to remember the Annually Managed Expenditure (AME), essentially welfare/transfer payments. From the leaks it is clear those on benefits will be taking a hit as well.

So it is likely the Northern Ireland economy will receive a double gut punch not one in the short-medium term due to its reliance on the public purse. This makes the Coalition talk of bolstering the private sector in the regions and particular areas like manufacturing even more important but to date they seem to be something jotted down on the back of an envelope rather than serious proposals.

Devolution and British Political Culture

An interesting aspect of the election is the lack of fear among the public of a hung parliament with a minority or coalition government being the result. Has devolution played a role in this? While Northern Ireland's circumstances has its own pecularities, Scotland has been governed by two Labour/Lib Dem coalitions and now a minority government. While at the last election in Wales resulted in a Labour/Plaid Cmyru coalition. Whatever the policy positions the various governments have adopted, they have not been riven by the crisis that would have been the narrative traditionally painted of them.