Cringe

If Australia gets the 2022 World Cup after this, then money must have changed hands. UPDATE Well Australia failed (as did England).  England will no doubt blame the BBC if I was the Aussies I'd blame the promo.

Tourist Warnings

Ultonia feels he must warn tourists from going to Australia because of the range of dangers they face whether at the beach or in the outback (nevermind the spiders).  He has also became aware of Sweden being a terrorism hotspot, the Australian government says so so it must be true:

"We advise you to exercise caution and monitor developments that might affect your safety in Sweden because of the risk of terrorist attack. Pay close attention to your personal security and monitor the media for information about possible new safety or security risks."

"...the macho swagger of politics..."

Andrew Baghehot in the Economist theorises why Conservatives are casting longing looks down under.  He argues that it says more about our own politics than the applicability of Australia to the United Kingdom:

"...much of the British Tory kerfuffle over Mr Abbott is not really about Australia at all. I think it is a sublimated form of grumbling from the Conservative base, provoked by what they see as the soggily centrist line taken by their leader and prime minister, David Cameron. Mr Cameron hugs huskies and says climate change is a terrible threat. Mr Abbott has called arguments in favour of emissions trading schemes to tackle climate change "absolute crap" (though he later said this was "a bit of hyperbole")."

Stand up to keep moving forward

These seems to be the decision of the Australian electorate who like the British electorate seemed torn about which direction to go and have ended up with a hung parliament.  Independents will come into play.  The Liberals are predicted to take 73 seats squeaking Labor on 72 but both shy of the 76 seats they need to form a majority government. 

There are five potential votes from four independents and a Green MP.  Three of the independents have conservative leanings and one has green leanings.  The three conservative leaning independents represent more rural areas so a package for such areas seems the likely price.  So on paper Abbott's job looks easier than Gillard's but when one of the independents goes by the self-description of the force from the North and by his opponents as Mad Bob anything is possible.

The BBC line that it was a backlash against Gillard because she knifed Rudd is a bit curious (but based on the Queensland result, Rudd's home turf).  Under Rudd the polls predicted an electoral hammering.  If anyone deserves blame of the two its probably Rudd, his poor record gave the sitting government little to run on and he remains the primary suspect for a series of leaks that made Labor look divided. That said from what I saw Gillard did not come across as a good campaigner (very wooden) and forced a relaunch of her image during the campaign.

PS It is also worth noting that Australia operates the AV system and at 11am this morning just under a quarter of votes still hadn't been counted.  It is a slower system that FPTP and in our cost conscious times possible worth noting it therefore costs a bit more to run such elections (never mind the £80-100m it's going to cost us to hold a referendum on it).

Tight fight down under

Conservativehome International has a good round up of how the Australian general election is poised.  The Labor campaign has misfired, plagued with internal troubles and an underestimation of the appeal of the Liberal Party leader, Tony Abbott.  While the Liberals winning is still a big ask expectations have certainly moved beyond simply getting the Liberals back to a respectable level.

It does appear to raise two interesting questions as regards UK politics.  Rudd trying to avenge his dismissal  has undermined the Labor campaign and the new Prime Minister.  It highlights the risks of knifing a sitting Prime Minister in response to bad polling.  So the 'if Labour had got rid of Brown' argument cannot be viewed as a guarantee of a better result. Considering Brown's reputation comparable behaviour to Rudd would not have been the least bit surprising neither would David Milliband failing to connect with voters like Gillard has so far failed to do.  While Abbott's campaign shows the appeal a 'values' politician can still have even when faced with metropolitan hostility.